Feder... Fit are... Geddit?
Yeah, anyway, this isn't about Roger Federer (in case you got confused), it's about the
Lib Dems and their sudden re-embracing of federalism, after years of claiming to be a federalist party, in much the same way students claim to be communists without having actually read the
Communist Manifesto. There's nothing wrong with the Lib Dems taking this opportunity to capitalise on public interest on constitutional change to say "hey, what about this thing we've always said we should do?" However, their plan is half-baked, and we all know it simply won't happen anyway.
In short, the Lib Dems think the Scottish public's apparent appetite for "devo max" could translate into backing for turning the UK into a federal state. It's a nice idea, not least because it would attempt to provide a (theoretically) much more permanent solution to Scotland's constitutional problems than airy-fairy promises of unspecified "more powers", but there are a multitude of problems in getting it put into practice, and indeed, how it would actually work thereafter.
For a start, the federal UK the Lib Dems appear to be promoting here is one of four federal states. That won't work. It was suggested to me on Twitter last night by a Canadian (brought up in Greece and now living in Scotland) that Canada shows federalism does not require states/provinces/whatever to be of uniform size. Leaving aside the issue of using a country with one of the most prominent independence movements as proof that "size doesn't matter", even the biggest of Canada's provinces does not contain 83.8% of the population. The reason we got devolution in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales in the first place was because England dominates the rest of us. There are no agendas or anti-Scottish/Irish/Welsh conspiracies behind this, it's simply the result of the massive structural imbalance of the UK.
As
Iain MacWhirter points out in his column today, the idea of regional assemblies has been floated in England before, and it was a complete flop. The
near-unanimous rejection of elected mayors this year also suggests there is little appetite for constitutional reforms in England, even fairly minor ones. So either 83.8% of the population would have to be satisfied with having the exact same say on matters as the 3% who live in Northern Ireland, or England would have to have more representation in a federal parliament than the other three states - which just leaves us back at square one.
The problem with federalism is it is a UK-wide solution to a Scottish problem. The whole reason there is no real appetite for constitutional reform in England is, I would suggest, because the current situation works fine as it is for them. England is not the country which lives off of a "pocket money" block grant, and the spending in England determines what is spent in the other countries of the UK, rather than the other way around. Those who do have grievances with the current situation tend to air them by calling Scots "subsidy junkies", rather than looking inwardly. If it's wrong for 83.8% of the population to force their wishes on 8.4% of the population, it's ten times as wrong for Scotland to tell England how it should be run. This is why Devo Whatever could never have appeared on the referendum paper as a third option, because anything short of independence simply cannot be delivered unilaterally for Scotland without the say so of the rest of the UK.
Now, unionists will say that whatever vision of minor constitutional change they envisage for Scotland doesn't need to be put to a referendum, because it will be voted on in the same way as any other policy, i.e. through party manifestos. This is a nice idea in theory, but in practice we found out a couple of years ago how strongly the Lib Dems stick to their principles when it comes to getting into power - so unless the Lib Dems plan on making the biggest comeback in the history of UK politics, they're not going to be able to push through federalism unless one of the other two UK parties back it as well - which is doubtful at best. Quite simply, the Lib Dems can pretty much promise whatever they like, because no one will take any Lib Dem pledges seriously for a generation.
Ironically, the best - and perhaps only - way for the Lib Dems to get federalism would have been in working with the SNP to get a multi-option referendum. Imagine a two-question referendum:
1. Do you think the UK should become a federal state, thus providing Scotland with more autonomy?
2. In the event of the rest of the UK rejecting federalism, do you think Scotland should become independent instead?
That way, if Scotland truly DID want federalism, we would vote for it, and then the issue of federalism would have to be treated seriously by the rest of the UK. If they don't want it, then fine, we go off on our own and everyone is happy. The alternative is to languish in the status quo, but as the Lib Dems themselves admit that the current situation is unsustainable, then they're implicitly admitting that this is not an option.
But that's not going to happen, so federalism is, in effect, completely undeliverable. But even if it was, why should we even believe it's the answer to Scotland's constitutional issues?
I've already mentioned Canada, which is a federal state with a prominent independence movement for one of the provinces. But other examples among the
29 federal (or de facto federal) countries in the world include Spain and Belgium, the countries containing the two most prominent independence movements in Europe outside of Scotland. You see, federalism is being offered here as a panacea to the independence question - "Don't vote for independence - federalism will give you the best of both worlds!" But if this were true, then why is there still such strong support for independence in Catalonia and Flanders?
The reality is, even if the UK DID go down the route of federalism, and even if England DID get split into ten federal states, there would still be at least 30% of Scotland seeking independence. We'd muddle along for a while, but eventually the same questions would start to get asked - why should Scotland harbour WMDs? Why should we fight in illegal wars? - and there would be no compromise solution left for unionists. Anyone who wasn't happy with Scotland's lot would just have to back independence, and indeed, it needs to be recognised that many of the strongest arguments for voting YES in 2014 are actually issues that cannot be resolved by anything short of independence - the EU, Trident, Iraq, the need for a different Scottish immigration policy.
So, thanks for trying, Ming. But it's not going to happen. There's only one solution for Scotland, and we'll get it by voting YES in 2014.